Unemployment

How India is becoming a young country but with an ageing workforce https://indianexpress.com/article/explained/explained-economics/explainspeaking-india-young-workforce-8903202/  Udit Misra  August 23, 2023

An analysis of India’s workforce, sourced from CMIE’s Economic Outlook data, shows that while India may be the country with the most youthful population, its workforce is rapidly ageing. In other words, the young are increasingly getting driven out of the job market.

https://economicoutlook.cmie.com/

Unemployment Rate Falls To 7.7% In May On Decline In Labour Participation: CMIE https://www.outlookindia.com/business/unemployment-rate-falls-to-7-7-in-may-on-decline-in-labour-participation-cmie-news-293767 PTI 11 Jun 2023 Unemployment rate in India among people aged 15 years and above was 8.5 per cent in April..The unemployment rate inched down as a consequence of a fall in the labour participation, which implies a fall in the number of people who entered the labour market in search of work.

Despite growth, why Indian workers need to worry https://indianexpress.com/article/opinion/columns/indian-daily-wage-workers-gdp-growth-employment-nrega-9082576/ Ishan Bakshi December 26, 2023  India’s workforce rose from around 460 million in 2017-18 to roughly 560 million in 2022-23 — an increase of 100 million workers over a five-year period. But, during this period, employment in the more productive manufacturing sector grew by just a shade above two million on average each year, while in the less productive agriculture sector, it rose by more than eight million. (The absolute numbers are based on population projections).

Notions of empowerment via self-employment ring hollow considering their meagre earnings. Not only have real incomes (adjusting for inflation) of self-employed women in rural areas barely risen, but they actually earn less compared to others.

This combination of a rapidly growing workforce, where new entrants are more reliant on less productive forms of employment in the least productive sectors, and an investment cycle that is more dependent on governments and households than the corporate sector, calls for a more measured, nuanced assessment of the country’s growth prospects.

It should be a matter of concern that this seemingly healthy economic momentum has, so far, not translated into a commensurate increase in more productive employment opportunities for the millions entering the labour force every year.

While the PM tried to hard sell this ‘before and after’ picture of his 10-year rule, it was left to the father of a Gujarati youth killed in the Ukraine war while serving the Russian army to deliver a stern reality check. https://thewire.in/economy/delusions-of-modinomics-cannot-hide-the-gloom-which-is-all-around-us 

Joblessness has peaked in India during the the BJP-led regime, whatever his spin doctors might argue. I distinctly remember Modi telling enthusiastic youth in UP and Bihar during the 2014 election campaign, “You give me 10 years and I will transform your lives”. Well, Modi has had ten years already and he has just ended up seeking the return of desperate Indian youth fighting other people’s wars abroad because there are no jobs in India.

by M.K. Venu

11/07/2024

Government economists, especially in the last five years, have taken to leading the analysis of data, not letting the data lead the analysis. https://thewire.in/labour/some-proof-required-modi-government-abysmal-record-no-jobs 

The cited government economist considers every type of ‘employment’, whether in agriculture or in the non-farm sector, as a job. No development economist who knows his stuff would make such an elementary error.

So in the last three years alone, the absolute number of workers in agriculture increased from 200 million to 260 million, mainly though not only because of reverse migration over 2020 to 2022, that is not productive employment; let us note that 200 million workers were generating 15% of India’s GDP (from agriculture), and 260 million are still doing the same.

Hence, an increase in ‘employment’ in agriculture is not jobs, rather it is ‘jobless growth’.

The latest CSDS survey (in 2024) has told us that 62% of voters believe it is now harder to find a job than five years ago, and in urban areas 65% have said it is harder to find jobs.

by Santosh Mehrotra

08/05/2024