Indian Electoral Politics: Shifting Sands
INDIA’s political landscape in the first quarter of the 21st century was defined by two dualisms. First, a visible divide has emerged in the political preferences of the predominantly Hindi-speaking India as compared to non-Hindi speaking regions of the subcontinent. Second, in the first decade of the 21st century the electorate showed a strong preference for multi-party coalitions, while in the second decade voter preference has been in favour of single-party governments, both at the Centre and in the states. Going forward, politics across the country is likely to revolve around these two tendencies. Will the electorate continue to be divided along linguistic and regional lines? Will it continue to opt for single-party governments with a dominant leader?
by Sanjaya Baru
30/01/2024
Up until 1976, seats in the Lok Sabha, Rajya Sabha, and state assemblies were reallocated to maintain nearly equal population representation. But the 42nd Amendment froze the number of seats until the 2001 Census.
https://theprint.in/opinion/delimitation-in-india-north-vs-south/2589801/
The 50-year freeze on the delimitation of parliamentary constituencies—initiated during the Emergency in 1976 for an initial 25-year period—has now snowballed into an acrimonious debate between the South and the North. As scholar Ravi K Mishra’s recent book Demography, Representation and Delimitation shows, the current discourse is riddled with factoids overshadowing facts.
Multiple issues—ranging from intra-state equity and parity among Lok Sabha MPs to the Finance Commission’s population-based fund devolution—have been collapsed into one, posing a serious challenge to building consensus on this contentious issue.
Elections to the region hold significant importance as they will determine the true identity of the Shiv Sena and NCP, test the newly formed alliance, and have an impact on the upcoming assembly elections.
what we’re witnessing is an unmistakable anti-Bharatiya Janata Party sentiment. Conversations with people in western Maharashtra reveal a deep-seated dissatisfaction with the BJP’s divisive tactics. Voters hold the party responsible for the rift within the Nationalist Congress Party, and a similar sentiment extends to Uddhav Thackeray in the Konkan-Mumbai region. Interestingly, despite the party splits, a large number of the original NCP and Shiv Sena cadres remain loyal to Sharad Pawar and Uddhav Thackeray, respectively.
In Maharashtra, besides the sympathy waves after the spilt of Shiv Sena and NCP, a significant factor at play is that people prioritise local issues over national ones. In rural areas, there is palpable resentment toward the BJP, largely stemming from the agrarian crisis, fair pricing for crops, Goods and Services Tax on agricultural products, and the failure of factories to pay sugarcane dues.
by Aamir Shakil
04/05/2024
North South Divide in Parliamentary Representation - https://youtu.be/Hqm1j1zeuMI?t=164 Real Purpose of the New Parliament | Will South be Destroyed? | Akash Banerjee & Adwaith
If new delimitation is implementated: Full South India will get 164 seats where as UP & Bihar will have 222 seats
UP: 143, Bihar: 79, AP 54, Karnataka 41, Tamil Nadu 49, Kerala 20
Interview: Political strategists are overhyped, says STC Director Shantanu Singh, who scripted TDP win in Andhra https://thesouthfirst.com/andhrapradesh/interview-political-strategists-are-overhyped-says-stc-director-shantanu-singh-who-scripted-tdp-win-in-andhra/ Sumit Jha Jun 11, 2024
Regarding the future of political consulting firms, the political space is becoming more competitive. The BJP’s spread has shrunk a bit, so other parties will try to gain a better share or ride on the momentum that suggests the BJP is not the same as in 2014. This shift will likely lead to the emergence of new ventures.
One significant development could be the resurgence of regional parties outside of BJP and Congress, and their attempts to regain the power they had in the 1990s and early 2010s. In this ecosystem, political consultants will play a significant role.
Offering money doesn’t guarantee loyalty, and resorting to administrative pressure is risky, especially considering how quickly political fortunes can change.
It’s like going to war with soldiers who are ready to defect at the first sign of weakness. Instead, I approach leaders by understanding their political ambitions and offering them a better path to achieving their goals.
not every negotiation will end in agreement. Mature politicians understand that personal grudges have no place in politics unless there’s a significant breach of trust. If our interests align, we work together; if not, we move on.
Successful politicians are thick-skinned and understand the importance of self-awareness and what they bring to the table.
Thick skin is essential in any field, including politics. Successful politicians understand their strengths and weaknesses and navigate the competitive landscape of Indian democracy without holding personal grudges. Our elections are highly competitive, leaving no room for long-term egos.